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Epidemiologia e Serviços de Saúde

versão impressa ISSN 1679-4974versão On-line ISSN 2337-9622

Resumo

BERNAL, Regina Tomie Ivata; MALTA, Deborah Carvalho; ISER, Betine Pinto Moehlecke  e  MONTEIRO, Rosane Aparecida. Method for projecting indicators for the goals of the Strategic Action Plan for Tackling Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases in Brazil according to Capitals and the Federal District. Epidemiol. Serv. Saúde [online]. 2016, vol.25, n.3, pp.455-466. ISSN 1679-4974.  http://dx.doi.org/10.5123/S1679-49742016000300002.

OBJECTIVE:

to present the indicators' projection method of the Strategic Action Plan for Tackling Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in Brazilian State capitals and the Federal District, 2012-2022.

METHODS:

simple linear regression model was used to calculate the indicators' projections with data from the Surveillance System of Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey (Vigitel).

RESULTS:

in most of the capitals, there was an increase in the prevalence of obesity (annual change: 0.36%;1.29%), overweight (annual change: 1.11%;2.00%), recommended (annual change: 1.45%;2.66%) and regular (annual change: 0.45%;1.46%) consumption of fruits and vegetables; smoking presented a decreasing trend (annual change: -1.34%;-0.20%); whereas physical inactivity, heavy drinking and mammography and Pap smears examinations were stable.

CONCLUSION:

most of the goals are possible; however, effective actions are necessary, especially for tackling overweight and heavy drinking.

Palavras-chave : Chronic Disease; Interview; Health Surveys; Linear Models; Forecasting.

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