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Epidemiologia e Serviços de Saúde

versão impressa ISSN 1679-4974versão On-line ISSN 2237-9622

Resumo

SOUZA, Carlos Dornels Freire de; LUNA, Carlos Feitosa  e  MAGALHAES, Mônica de Avelar Figueiredo Mafra. Leprosy transmission in Bahia, 2001-2015: modeling based on Joinpoint regression and spatial scan statistics. Epidemiol. Serv. Saúde [online]. 2019, vol.28, n.1, e2018065.  Epub 08-Abr-2019. ISSN 1679-4974.  http://dx.doi.org/10.5123/s1679-49742019000100015.

Objective:

to describe the trend and the spatial distribution of leprosy in the state of Bahia, Brazil, 2001-2015.

Methods:

this was a mixed ecological study of epidemiological indicators of leprosy; Joinpoint regression was used for the temporal analysis, while spatial scan statistics were used to identify clusters of the disease; the trend was classified as stationary, increasing or decreasing; we calculated the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC).

Results:

there was a reduction in prevalence (AAPC = -5.6; p<0,001), treatment dropout (AAPC = -13.7; p<0.001), and females with leprosy (AAPC = -0.6; p<0.001); the new grade II case coefficient (AAPC = 2.7; p<0.001) and the proportion of multibacillary cases (AAPC = 2,2; p<0.001) showed a growing trend; spatial distribution was heterogeneous and concentrated in three regions in particular (north, west and south of the state), with variation between the indicators.

Conclusion:

persisting leprosy transmission in the state, late diagnosis and high hidden prevalence is suggested.

Palavras-chave : Leprosy; Spatial Analysis; Neglected Diseases; Time Series Studies; Ecological Studies.

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