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Epidemiologia e Serviços de Saúde
Print version ISSN 1679-4974On-line version ISSN 2237-9622
Abstract
ZIMMERMANN, Ivan; SANCHEZ, Mauro; BRANT, Jonas and ALVES, Domingos. Projection of COVID-19 intensive care hospitalizations in the Federal District, Brazil: an analysis of the impact of social distancing measures. Epidemiol. Serv. Saúde [online]. 2020, vol.29, n.5, e2020361. Epub Nov 27, 2020. ISSN 1679-4974. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s1679-49742020000500022.
Objective:
To build scenarios and analyze the impact of social distancing policies on the spread of COVID-19 and the need for intensive care unit beds.
Methods:
Three dissemination scenarios were built according to level of adherence to social distancing measures in the context of Brazil's Federal District, based on a dynamic transition compartmental model and Monte Carlo simulations. The model's parameter values were based on official sources, indexed bibliographic databases and public data repositories.
Results:
The favorable scenario, with constant 58% adherence to social distancing, estimated a peak of 189 (interquartile range [IQR]: 57 – 394) ICU hospitalizations on March 3rd2021. Absence of social distancing would result in an unfavorable scenario with a peak of 6,214 (IQR: 4,618 – 8,415) ICU hospitalizations probably as soon as July 14th2020.
Conclusion:
The projections indicate the high impact of social distancing measures and emphasize the applicability of public indicators for COVID-19 monitoring.
Keywords : Coronavirus Infections; Intensive Care Units; Bed Occupancy; Health Evaluation; Public Policy.
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