SciELO - Scientific Electronic Library Online

 
vol.29 número5Caracterização das notificações de intoxicações exógenas por agrotóxicos no Rio Grande do Sul, 2011-2018Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde 2019: histórico, métodos e perspectivas índice de autoresíndice de assuntospesquisa de artigos
Home Pagelista alfabética de periódicos  

Serviços Personalizados

Journal

Artigo

Indicadores

  • Não possue artigos citadosCitado por SciELO

Links relacionados

  • Não possue artigos similaresSimilares em SciELO

Compartilhar


Epidemiologia e Serviços de Saúde

versão impressa ISSN 1679-4974versão On-line ISSN 2237-9622

Resumo

ZIMMERMANN, Ivan; SANCHEZ, Mauro; BRANT, Jonas  e  ALVES, Domingos. Projection of COVID-19 intensive care hospitalizations in the Federal District, Brazil: an analysis of the impact of social distancing measures. Epidemiol. Serv. Saúde [online]. 2020, vol.29, n.5, e2020361.  Epub 27-Nov-2020. ISSN 1679-4974.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s1679-49742020000500022.

Objective:

To build scenarios and analyze the impact of social distancing policies on the spread of COVID-19 and the need for intensive care unit beds.

Methods:

Three dissemination scenarios were built according to level of adherence to social distancing measures in the context of Brazil's Federal District, based on a dynamic transition compartmental model and Monte Carlo simulations. The model's parameter values were based on official sources, indexed bibliographic databases and public data repositories.

Results:

The favorable scenario, with constant 58% adherence to social distancing, estimated a peak of 189 (interquartile range [IQR]: 57 – 394) ICU hospitalizations on March 3rd2021. Absence of social distancing would result in an unfavorable scenario with a peak of 6,214 (IQR: 4,618 – 8,415) ICU hospitalizations probably as soon as July 14th2020.

Conclusion:

The projections indicate the high impact of social distancing measures and emphasize the applicability of public indicators for COVID-19 monitoring.

Palavras-chave : Coronavirus Infections; Intensive Care Units; Bed Occupancy; Health Evaluation; Public Policy.

        · resumo em Português | Espanhol     · texto em Português | Inglês     · Português ( pdf ) | Inglês ( pdf )