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Epidemiologia e Serviços de Saúde
versão impressa ISSN 1679-4974versão On-line ISSN 2237-9622
Resumo
SOUZA JR., Gilberto Nerino de et al. COVID-PA Bulletin: reports on artificial intelligence-based forecasting in coping with COVID-19 pandemic in the state of Pará, Brazil. Epidemiol. Serv. Saúde [online]. 2021, vol.30, n.4, e2021098. Epub 29-Out-2021. ISSN 1679-4974. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s1679-49742021000400012.
Objective:
To report the university extension research result entitled ‘The COVID-PA Bulletin’, which presented forecasts on the behavior of the pandemic in the state of Pará, Brazil.
Methods:
The artificial intelligence technique also known as 'artificial neural networks' was used to generate 13 bulletins with short-term forecasts based on historical data from the State Department of Public Health information system.
Results:
After eight months of predictions, the technique generated reliable results, with an average accuracy of 97% (observed for147 days) for confirmed cases, 96% (observed for 161 days) for deaths and 86% (observed for 72 days) for Intensive Care Unit bed occupancy.
Conclusion:
These bulletins have become a useful decision-making tool for public managers, assisting in the reallocation of hospital resources and optimization of COVID-19 control strategies in various regions of the state of Pará.
Palavras-chave : COVID-19; Artificial Intelligence; Forecast; Neural Networks; Decision Making.