<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1679-4974</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Epidemiologia e Serviços de Saúde]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Epidemiol. Serv. Saúde]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1679-4974</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde e Ambiente - Ministério da Saúde do Brasil]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1679-49742018000400021</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5123/s1679-49742018000400013</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Estudo espacial da hanseníase na Bahia, 2001-2012: abordagem a partir do modelo bayesiano empírico local]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Estudio espacial de la lepra en Bahia, Brasil, 2001-2012: enfoque a partir del modelo bayesiano empírico local]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Spatial study of leprosy in Bahia, Brazil, 2001-2012: an approach based on the local empirical Bayesian model]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Souza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Carlos Dornels Freire de]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Santos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Franklin Gerônimo Bispo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Marques]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Caroline de Sales]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Leal]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Thiago Cavalcanti]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Paiva]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[João Paulo Silva de]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Araújo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Emmylly Maria Correia Ferro de]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidade Federal de Alagoas Departamento de Medicina ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Arapiraca AL]]></addr-line>
<country>Brazil</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>27</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.iec.gov.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1679-49742018000400021&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.iec.gov.br/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1679-49742018000400021&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.iec.gov.br/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1679-49742018000400021&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo  Objetivo: comparar a evolução temporal e a distribuição espacial dos indicadores epidemiológicos de hanseníase brutos e corrigidos pelo modelo bayesiano empírico, Bahia, Brasil, 2001-2012.  Métodos: estudo ecológico com dados do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação; foram incluídos todos os 417 municípios baianos e analisados os indicadores/100 mil habitantes - taxa de detecção de casos novos na população geral, em &lt;15 anos e de grau 2 de incapacidade física -; utilizou-se o modelo bayesiano empírico local para suavização dos indicadores, e o teste t de Student, para comparação das médias.  Resultados: os indicadores estimados pelo modelo foram superiores aos observados; as taxas de detecção geral e em &lt;15 anos estimadas foram superiores às observadas em 253 (60,7%) e 209 (50,1%) municípios, respectivamente; as áreas de maior risco concentraram-se no eixo Norte-Oeste e na região Sul do estado.  Conclusão: distribuição espacial heterogênea da doença e existência de possível subnotificação de casos.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Objetivo: comparar la evolución temporal y la distribución espacial de los indicadores epidemiológicos de la lepra brutos y corregidos por el modelo bayesiano empírico, Bahia, 2001-2012.  Métodos: estudio ecológico con datos del Sistema de Información de Agravamientos de Notificación; se incluyeron todos los 417 municipios baianos y se analizaron los indicadores/100 mil habitantes - tasa de detección de casos nuevos en la población general, en &lt;15 años y de grado 2 de incapacidad física -; se utilizó el modelo bayesiano empírico local para suavizar los indicadores, y la prueba t de Student, para la comparación de los promedios.  Resultados: los indicadores estimados por el modelo fueron superiores a los observados; las tasas de detección general y en &lt;15 años estimadas fueron superiores a las observados en 253 (60,7%) y 209 (50,1%) municipios; las áreas de mayor riesgo se concentraron en el eje Norte-Oeste y en la región sur del estado.  Conclusión: distribución espacial heterogénea de la enfermedad y existencia de posible subnotificación.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Objective: to compare the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of epidemiological indicators of leprosy, both crude and also corrected using the empirical Bayesian model, Bahia, Brazil, 2001-2012.  Methods: this was an ecological study using data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System; all 417 municipalities in Bahia were included and the following indicators per 100,000 inhabitants were analyzed - detection rate of new cases in the general population, in those &lt;15 years old, and in those with grade 2 physical disability -; the local empirical Bayesian model was used to smoothen the indicators, and Student&#8217;s t-test was used to compare means.  Results: indicators estimated by the model were higher than crude indicators; estimated detection rates in the general population and in those &lt;15 years old were higher than crude rates in 253 (60.7%) and 209 (50.1%) municipalities, respectively; areas of greatest risk were concentrated in the northwestern and southern regions of the state.  Conclusion: spatial distribution of the disease was heterogeneous and there was possible underreporting of cases.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Hanseníase]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Análise Espacial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Sistemas de Informação]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Estudos Ecológicos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Lepra]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Análisis Espacial]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Sistemas de Información]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Estudios Ecológicos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Leprosy]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Spatial Analysis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Information Systems]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Ecological Studies]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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