<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1679-4974</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Epidemiologia e Serviços de Saúde]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Epidemiol. Serv. Saúde]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1679-4974</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde e Ambiente - Ministério da Saúde do Brasil]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1679-49742021000100018</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1590/s1679-49742021000100017</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[A pandemia da COVID-19 no Brasil: a série de projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation e a evolução observada, maio a agosto de 2020]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[La Pandemia de COVID-19 en Brasil: Serie de Proyecciones del Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation y la Evolución Observada, desde mayo hasta agosto, 2020]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projections and observed evolution, May-August, 2020]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Stein]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Caroline]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cousin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ewerton]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Machado]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ísis Eloah]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Felisbino-Mendes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mariana Santos]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Passos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Valéria Maria de Azeredo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sousa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Tatiane Moraes de]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Schmidt]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Maria Inês]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gallagher]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[John]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Naghavi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mohsen]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Duncan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Bruce B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Porto Alegre RS]]></addr-line>
<country>Brasil</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Seattle WA]]></addr-line>
<country>Estados Unidos</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto Departamento de Medicina de Família, Saúde Mental e Coletiva ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Ouro Preto MG]]></addr-line>
<country>Brasil</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais Escola de Enfermagem ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Belo Horizonte MG]]></addr-line>
<country>Brasil</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais Faculdade de Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Belo Horizonte MG]]></addr-line>
<country>Brasil</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af6">
<institution><![CDATA[,Fundação Instituto Oswaldo Cruz Departamento de Endemias Samuel Pessoa ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Rio de Janeiro RJ]]></addr-line>
<country>Brasil</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af7">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul Faculdade de Medicina Departamento de Medicina Social]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Porto Alegre RS]]></addr-line>
<country>Brasil</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>30</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.iec.gov.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1679-49742021000100018&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.iec.gov.br/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1679-49742021000100018&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.iec.gov.br/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1679-49742021000100018&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo  Objetivo  Descrever as projeções do Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) para a COVID-19 no Brasil e seus estados, apresentar sua acurácia e discutir suas implicações.  Métodos  As previsões do IHME de maio a agosto de 2020, para o Brasil e alguns estados, foram comparadas ao número de mortes cumulativas observadas.  Resultados  A projeção prevê 182.809 mortes causadas pela pandemia até 1º de dezembro de 2020 no Brasil. O aumento no uso de máscara poderia poupar ~17 mil óbitos. O erro médio no número acumulado de óbitos em duas, quatro e seis semanas das projeções foi de 13%, 18% e 22% respectivamente.  Conclusão  Projeções de curto e médio prazo dispõem dados importantes e acurácia suficiente para informar os gestores de saúde, autoridades eleitas e sociedade geral. Após trajeto difícil até agosto, a pandemia, conforme as projeções, terá declínio sustentado, embora demorado, causando em média 400 óbitos/dia no início de dezembro.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Objetivo  Describir las proyecciones del Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation para COVID-19 en Brasil y sus estados, presentar su precisión y discutir sus implicaciones.  Métodos  Las previsiones del IHME de mayo a agosto de 2020 para Brasil y algunos estados, se compararon con las muertes acumuladas observadas.  Resultados  La proyección prevé 182.809 muertes por la pandemia hasta el 1º de diciembre de 2020 en Brasil. Un aumento en el uso de mascarillas podría evitar ~17.000 muertes. El error medio en el número acumulado de muertes en 2, 4 y 6 semanas de las proyecciones fue de 13%, 18% y 22%.  Conclusión  Las proyecciones de corto y medio plazo proporcionan datos importantes y con suficiente precisión para informar a los administradores de salud, autoridades electas y a la sociedad. Después de un camino difícil hasta agosto, la pandemia, según las proyecciones, tendrá una disminución sostenida, pero lenta, y seguirá causando alrededor de 400 muertes/día a principios de diciembre.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Objective  To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and the Brazilian states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications.  Methods  The IHME projections from May to August 2020 for Brazil and selected states were compared with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths.  Results  The pandemic was projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The mean error in the cumulative number of deaths at 2, 4 and 6 weeks after the projections were made was 13%, 18% and 22%, respectively.  Conclusion  Short and medium-term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate data to inform health managers, elected officials, and society at large. After following an arduous course up until August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily although slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Infecções por Coronavirus]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Previsões]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Pandemias]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Brasil]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Estudos de Séries Temporais]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Infecciones por Coronavirus]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Predicción]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Pandemias]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Brasil]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Estudios de Series Temporales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Coronavirus Infections]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Disease Transmission, Infectious]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Forecasting]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Pandemics]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Brazil]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Time Series Studies]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Efficacy of face mask in preventing respiratory virus transmission: a systematic review and meta-analysis]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Travel Med Infect Dis]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<volume>36</volume>
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<ref id="B24">
<label>24</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>World Health Organization</collab>
<collab>WHO</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) advice for the public: when and how to use masks]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Geneva ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[World Health Organization]]></publisher-name>
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<ref id="B25">
<label>25</label><nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>Youyang Gu</collab>
<source><![CDATA[COVID-19 Projections]]></source>
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<ref id="B26">
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<collab>Imperial College London</collab>
<source><![CDATA[COVID-19 Scenario analysis tool]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[London ]]></publisher-loc>
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<year>2020</year>
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