<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1679-4974</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Epidemiologia e Serviços de Saúde]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Epidemiol. Serv. Saúde]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1679-4974</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde e Ambiente - Ministério da Saúde do Brasil]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1679-49742021000100021</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1590/s1679-49742021000100007</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Avaliação de modelos de predição para ocorrência de malária no estado do Amapá, 1997-2016: um estudo ecológico]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Evaluación de modelos de predicción para la ocurrencia de aparición de la malaria en el estado del Amapá, Brasil, 1997-2016: un estudio ecológico]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Evaluation of prediction models for the occurrence of malaria in the state of Amapá, Brazil, 1997-2016: an ecological study]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lima]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Marcos Venicius Malveira de]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Laporta]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gabriel Zorello]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro Universitário Saúde ABC Faculdade de Medicina ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Santo André SP]]></addr-line>
<country>Brasil</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Secretaria de Estado de Saúde do Acre Diretoria de Ações Programáticas e Vigilância em Saúde ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Rio Branco AC]]></addr-line>
<country>Brasil</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>30</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.iec.gov.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1679-49742021000100021&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.iec.gov.br/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1679-49742021000100021&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.iec.gov.br/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1679-49742021000100021&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo  Objetivo  Avaliar a capacidade preditiva de diferentes modelos de série temporal de casos de malária no estado do Amapá, Brasil, no período 1997-2016.  Métodos  Estudo ecológico de séries temporais com casos de malária registrados no Amapá. Foram utilizados dez modelos estatísticos determinísticos ou estocásticos para simulação e teste em horizontes de previsão de 3, 6 e 12 meses.  Resultados  O teste inicial mostrou que a série é estacionária. Os modelos determinísticos apresentaram melhor desempenho do que os modelos estocásticos. O modelo ARIMA apresentou erros absolutos menores do que 2% na escala logarítmica e erros relativos 3,4-5,8 vezes menores em relação ao modelo nulo. A predição de casos futuros de malária nos horizontes de 6 e 12 meses de antecedência foi possível.  Conclusão  Recomenda-se o uso de modelo ARIMA para a previsão de cenários futuros e para a antecipação do planejamento nos serviços de saúde dos estados da Região Amazônica.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen  Objetivo  Evaluar el poder predictivo de diferentes modelos de series de temporales de casos de malaria en el estado de Amapá, Brasil, en el periodo 1997-2016.  Métodos  Se trata de un estudio ecológico de series de temporales con casos de malaria registrados en el estado de Amapá. Se utilizaron diez modelos estadísticos determinísticos o estocásticos para la simulación y la prueba en horizontes de predicción de 3, 6 y 12 meses.  Resultados  La prueba inicial mostró que la serie es estacionaria. Los modelos determinísticos mostraron mejor desempeño que los modelos estocásticos. El modelo ARIMA mostró errores absolutos menores al 2% en la escala logarítmica y errores relativos 3,4-5,8 veces menores que el modelo nulo. La predicción de casos futuros en horizontes de 6 y 12 meses de antelación fue posible.  Conclusión  Se recomienda utilizar el modelo ARIMA para predecir escenarios futuros y anticipar la planificación en los servicios de salud en los estados de la Región Amazónica.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract  Objective  To evaluate the predictive power of different malaria case time-series models in the state of Amapá, Brazil, for the period 1997-2016.  Methods  This is an ecological time series study with malaria cases recorded in the state of Amapá. Ten deterministic or stochastic statistical models were used for simulation and testing in 3, 6, and 12 month forecast horizons.  Results  The initial test showed that the series is stationary. Deterministic models performed better than stochastic models. The ARIMA model showed absolute errors of less than 2% on the logarithmic scale and relative errors 3.4-5.8 times less than the null model. It was possible to predict future malaria cases 6 and 12 months in advance.  Conclusion  The ARIMA model is recommended for predicting future scenarios and for earlier planning in state health services in the Amazon Region.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Estudos de Séries Temporais]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Malária]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Técnicas de Apoio para a Decisão]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Monitoramento Epidemiológico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Previsões]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Estudios de Series Temporales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Malaria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Técnicas de Apoyo para la Decisión]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Monitoreo Epidemiológico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Predicción]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Time Series Studies]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Malaria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Decision Support Techniques]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Epidemiological Monitoring]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Forecasting]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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